Angela Rayner’s Exit Is a Bombshell – But Starmer’s Real Crisis May Just Be Beginning
The Deputy Prime Minister’s Resignation Deepens Turmoil in Labour’s First Term, Raising Questions Over Leadership, Unity, and Public Trust
Less than 18 months into office, Keir Starmer’s Labour government—once buoyed by a landslide victory—has found itself facing its gravest political crisis yet. The dramatic resignation of Angela Rayner, who held the dual role of Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, has thrown the administration into turmoil, shaking public confidence and revealing internal fractures long papered over.
Rayner’s departure, prompted by a controversy over underpaid stamp duty totalling nearly £40,000, may not only damage the government’s image of competence—it may also trigger a deep, destabilising battle for the soul of the Labour Party.
A Government Already on the Back Foot
This isn’t a scandal breaking out in a thriving government. Labour, despite its commanding majority, has been struggling with midterm malaise for months. Starmer’s approval ratings are in steady decline, the economy remains sluggish, and internal Labour debates over direction and priorities have intensified.
Labour veterans in Downing Street may be quick to draw comparisons to Peter Mandelson’s 1998 resignation under Tony Blair—a departure also linked to property matters—but the circumstances couldn’t be more different. Blair was riding high on economic growth, popular support, and a clear vision. Starmer, by contrast, appears increasingly embattled, with no strong narrative to unite or inspire his government.
More Than Just a Scandal: A Resignation with Real Political Cost
All government resignations are damaging, but Rayner’s exit cuts especially deep. Her personal story—rising from a working-class background, leaving school pregnant at 16, and entering politics through trade union activism—symbolised the Labour Party’s promise of social mobility.
Her presence in government helped bridge the perceived divide between Starmer’s technocratic leadership and the party’s traditional base. In many ways, Rayner served as Starmer’s John Prescott—a link to Labour’s working-class heartlands, someone who could speak directly and authentically to voters that Starmer, despite his own background, has struggled to reach.
On the campaign trail and in focus groups, Rayner’s blunt honesty and authenticity resonated with voters, especially working-class women. Her ability to communicate in plain terms about real-life issues made her a standout figure in a cabinet often seen as distant and overly polished. Losing that connection is more than a communications issue—it’s a political void not easily filled.
The Fallout: Cabinet Reshuffle and Internal Election Looming
In an attempt to seize control of the narrative, Starmer moved quickly with a reshuffle:
- David Lammy was promoted to Deputy Prime Minister.
- Yvette Cooper, formerly Home Secretary, has taken over as Foreign Secretary, replacing Lammy.
But this rearrangement may do little to reassure either the public or the party. Forced reshuffles rarely project strength. More worryingly for Starmer, Rayner’s resignation as Deputy Leader opens the door to a potentially fractious internal election—one he cannot directly control, as the role is elected by party members, not appointed.
Unless Starmer attempts to abolish the role or orchestrate an uncontested coronation (with Lammy as the presumptive candidate), Labour is now staring down the barrel of a divisive leadership contest at the very moment it can least afford it.
A Party at a Crossroads
The upcoming Deputy Leadership election could become a proxy battle for the direction of the Labour Party, reigniting tensions between its centrist leadership and its more left-leaning base.
The strategic question now facing Labour is this:
- Should the party continue chasing the “hero voters” of the red wall—disaffected, often socially conservative voters in post-industrial areas, who backed Brexit and have flirted with Reform UK?
- Or should Labour pivot back toward the progressive left, re-engaging with younger urban voters, Greens, and independents disillusioned by Starmer’s centrism?
Starmer has kept a tight lid on this debate until now, but Rayner’s resignation threatens to blow that lid clean off.
A Government Without a Story
What makes this crisis more perilous than Mandelson’s resignation 27 years ago isn’t just the absence of a Blair-like communicator—it’s the absence of a compelling story. Voters don’t just want competence; they want a sense of purpose, a reason to believe in their government’s vision.
Rayner's scandal over unpaid taxes, while minor in monetary terms, clashes directly with Starmer’s core brand. The former prosecutor sold himself as the straight man, the un-Boris, the rules guy. But scandals—whether they involve free concert tickets, luxury clothing, or tax oversights—erode that image rapidly.
“Starmer doesn’t have charisma or rhetorical skill to fall back on,” said one senior Labour figure. “His brand was built on trust and competence. And both are now being questioned.”
Wider Political Implications: The Rise of Reform and the Challenge from the Left
Adding fuel to the fire is the rise of Reform UK, which is set to hold its party conference this weekend. Recent polls show Nigel Farage’s outfit possibly overtaking the Conservatives, and even threatening Labour in certain working-class constituencies.
At the same time, Labour is leaking support to:
- The Green Party,
- An emerging breakaway party tied to figures like Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana,
- A growing group of left-wing independents.
Starmer’s attempt to triangulate between these competing threats may no longer be tenable. Rayner’s exit has forced a reckoning—and it may come to a head at Labour’s annual conference or the autumn budget announcement, now scheduled for November 26.
Looking Ahead: A Leadership Test with No Margin for Error
The Prime Minister now faces a crucial autumn. Labour’s party conference will need to deliver more than stage-managed speeches—it must show direction, unity, and ambition. Meanwhile, the November budget must deliver enough economic support to appease a restless electorate and restore confidence in Labour’s ability to govern.
If Starmer and his inner circle fail to step up, the consequences could be catastrophic—not just for their political survival, but for Labour’s fragile grip on power.
Conclusion: A Crisis Far Deeper Than One Resignation
Angela Rayner’s resignation is more than a headline—it is a symptom of a deeper malaise within the Labour Party and the Starmer project itself. Without Rayner, Starmer loses more than a deputy. He loses a communicator, a connector, and a symbol of Labour’s promise.
Unless the Prime Minister can rapidly reset his government’s narrative and re-establish public trust, the fallout from this political bombshell may mark the beginning of a long and painful decline for his administration.
